IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1 (July, 2000)
World - B2 MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 5262 6091 6891 7672 8372 8930 9367 9704 9960 10158 10306 10414  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 20.9 28.3 38.6 50.7 66.0 85.5 109.5 134.8 161.5 186.3 210.3 234.9  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     26 35 47 60 76 93 114 137 161 184 207 232  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   38 27 27 24 18 14 11 10 9 8 7 7  
  Solids   42 47 40 36 29 30 19 17 16 16 13 7  
  Liquids   111 134 167 200 236 255 268 273 267 270 289 294  
  Gas   41 46 50 59 70 86 105 119 130 130 118 111  
  Electricity   35 47 62 85 113 150 188 227 272 321 366 409  
  Others   8 11 17 25 41 51 63 78 90 104 116 123  
  Total   275 311 362 429 507 586 654 723 783 848 909 951  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   91 91 98 98 96 93 86 91 119 170 231 300  
  Oil   128 168 195 214 240 238 227 201 146 101 72 52  
  Gas   71 84 107 150 194 251 297 356 390 402 385 336  
  Nuclear   7 8 11 16 23 32 48 61 83 99 120 142  
  Biomass   46 43 46 53 61 79 105 136 184 236 280 315  
                               
  Other Renewables   8 14 22 34 54 80 107 131 153 176 197 212  
  Total   352 408 479 566 667 773 869 976 1074 1184 1285 1357  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 5.7 6.5 7.4 8.6 10.3 12.6  
  Oil   0.0 1.4 3.1 5.1 7.2 9.6 12.0 14.3 16.3 17.7 18.7 19.5  
  Gas   0.0 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.1 8.6 11.6 15.1 19.0 23.1 26.9  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 75.3 159.1 248.3 343.0 446.0 554.5 667.0 782.5 901.4 1026.1 1156.7  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
  Cropland   1459 1481 1510 1540 1570 1598 1626 1656 1687 1718 1751 1784  
  Grasslands   3389 3409 3436 3454 3473 3508 3543 3577 3611 3641 3668 3696  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 14 92 190 288 313 338 342 325 307  
  Forest   4296 4252 4225 4251 4292 4323 4353 4380 4407 4441 4482 4522  
  Others   3805 3806 3778 3690 3522 3330 3139 3023 2907 2807 2723 2639  
  Total   12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.99 9.02 10.15 10.93 11.23 11.74 11.87 12.46 13.20 13.82 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.80 0.03 -0.25 -0.24 -0.23 -0.24 -0.25 -0.31 -0.41 -0.50 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
  Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.78 9.05 9.90 10.69 11.01 11.49 11.62 12.15 12.79 13.32  
  CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 349 384 426 466 504 522 544 566 579 597 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 65.9 61.3 60.3 59.0 55.7 53.8 50.9 50.0 49.0 47.9  
  CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 786 299 272 315 346 413 483 548 603 649  
  PFC MtC eq. 32 25 42 55 70 88 107 120 128 130 127 121  
  SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 48 55 60 76 79 80 74 63 65 69  
  CO MtCO 879 877 935 1022 1111 1220 1319 1423 1570 1742 1886 2002  
  NMVOC Mt 139 141 159 180 199 214 217 214 202 192 178 170  
  NOx MtN 31 32 37 43 49 53 54 56 56 59 61 61  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data                              
                               
OECD90 - B2 MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 859 916 953 982 994 988 976 965 951 941 934 928  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 16.4 21.1 26.5 30.3 33.1 35.8 38.3 40.9 44.4 47.9 52.0 56.6  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     14 18 23 26 29 31 34 36 39 42 46 50  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   13 9 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Liquids   66 71 79 86 92 88 76 68 64 60 60 58  
  Gas   22 24 26 25 27 31 35 38 34 29 24 17  
  Electricity   22 29 36 44 50 56 61 65 71 76 83 89  
  Others   1 1 2 4 7 8 10 12 14 16 17 18  
  Total   124 133 146 162 177 183 182 183 183 182 184 182  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   38 34 36 39 33 24 20 19 23 26 29 34  
  Oil   72 86 91 90 90 81 65 54 42 30 23 17  
  Gas   33 41 50 61 71 86 99 114 113 123 127 121  
  Nuclear   6 7 9 11 13 15 17 16 21 21 25 29  
  Biomass   6 7 6 7 8 9 12 15 22 28 31 33  
                               
  Other Renewables   4 5 8 11 15 20 25 29 33 36 39 41  
  Total   159 180 200 219 230 234 236 248 253 265 273 274  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.3  
  Oil   0.0 0.8 1.7 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.1 7.3  
  Gas   0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 4.3 5.4 6.6 7.8 9.2  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 30.1 63.5 99.1 135.5 170.8 204.1 236.1 267.0 297.0 326.8 356.3  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
  Cropland   381 384 391 398 406 411 417 423 429 435 442 449  
  Grasslands   760 764 770 773 776 787 798 812 826 838 849 860  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 2 17 36 54 59 64 64 61 58  
  Forest   1050 1059 1069 1082 1095 1104 1113 1125 1136 1151 1171 1190  
  Others   838 822 799 774 734 691 647 611 575 540 506 471  
  Total   3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.50 3.71 3.70 3.51 3.26 3.25 3.08 3.10 3.14 3.10 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.06 -0.08 -0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.08 -0.11 -0.15 -0.19 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
  Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.48 3.64 3.62 3.45 3.22 3.19 2.99 2.99 2.98 2.91  
  CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 72 71 68 67 69 69 70 72 75 78 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 11.3 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5  
  HFC MtC eq. 19 57 105 99 102 101 102 101 100 98 98 97  
  PFC MtC eq. 18 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 7 7  
  SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 25 23 17 13 13 11 10 11 10 10  
  CO MtCO 179 161 163 173 180 187 185 185 195 213 207 197  
  NMVOC Mt 42 36 37 39 42 45 43 41 38 36 33 30  
  NOx MtN 13 12 13 15 16 16 15 15 14 13 12 11  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data                              
                               
REF - B2 MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 413 415 417 418 416 411 406 396 389 384 381 379  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.8 4.5 6.6 8.6 10.5 11.9 13.2 14.5  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     3 2 3 3 4 6 7 10 12 13 15 16  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   9 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Liquids   15 14 17 17 17 19 19 18 18 19 20 22  
  Gas   14 14 12 15 18 19 19 18 16 15 12 10  
  Electricity   6 6 6 7 9 13 18 21 24 27 30 32  
  Others   7 6 6 7 10 11 12 14 15 16 16 15  
  Total   50 45 44 49 55 63 68 71 73 76 78 79  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   19 15 11 7 9 10 12 8 11 15 21 29  
  Oil   20 18 20 19 18 18 20 16 7 5 4 0  
  Gas   27 26 24 31 38 49 51 59 66 63 52 43  
  Nuclear   1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 7 9  
  Biomass   2 1 1 1 2 2 4 6 10 13 16 22  
                               
  Other Renewables   1 1 2 3 4 6 8 10 12 16 19 21  
  Total   70 62 57 62 73 86 97 102 111 117 119 125  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5  
  Oil   0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6  
  Gas   0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.6 5.2  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 11.0 19.5 26.7 33.8 42.9 54.0 65.7 77.4 89.4 101.2 112.8  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
  Cropland   268 269 274 280 285 291 296 302 308 314 320 327  
  Grasslands   341 362 366 368 370 373 377 380 383 386 389 392  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 1 6 12 18 20 21 22 20 19  
  Forest   966 951 939 944 947 944 941 940 939 941 945 949  
  Others   701 693 697 683 668 656 644 634 624 613 601 589  
  Total   2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.80 0.81 0.94 1.11 1.24 1.18 1.22 1.24 1.21 1.18 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.01 -0.18 -0.14 -0.09 -0.04 -0.04 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.04 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
  Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.79 0.63 0.80 1.02 1.20 1.15 1.19 1.21 1.17 1.14  
  CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 36 40 45 50 53 50 47 47 46 47 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.1 3.5 1.6 1.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.6  
  HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 21 25 25 26 26 26 27 27  
  PFC MtC eq. 7 4 8 10 14 19 25 28 30 30 28 27  
  SF6 MtC eq. 7 6 5 7 9 12 15 16 15 14 14 14  
  CO MtCO 69 41 43 48 59 69 74 73 68 72 70 79  
  NMVOC Mt 16 13 14 16 21 28 32 31 30 30 27 26  
  NOx MtN 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data                              
                               
ASIA - B2 MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 2798 3248 3649 4008 4312 4538 4696 4790 4856 4902 4938 4968  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 1.5 3.5 7.2 13.2 21.3 30.7 41.8 52.7 64.1 75.0 85.8 97.1  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     5 9 15 22 31 39 49 59 69 79 89 100  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   24 16 16 13 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 4  
  Solids   19 30 29 28 24 25 17 14 12 12 9 2  
  Liquids   13 26 41 60 81 96 112 117 109 107 114 122  
  Gas   2 3 5 9 13 18 22 30 38 37 34 33  
  Electricity   4 8 14 24 37 53 70 87 108 131 151 169  
  Others   1 3 7 10 16 20 25 31 35 43 51 55  
  Total   62 86 111 144 181 220 252 284 308 335 363 385  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   30 38 47 47 48 53 48 56 71 105 144 180  
  Oil   15 32 45 63 82 88 93 82 61 41 27 21  
  Gas   3 6 16 31 43 55 61 72 79 66 51 39  
  Nuclear   0 1 2 4 7 13 21 29 38 47 56 65  
  Biomass   24 22 25 28 32 41 54 68 88 109 123 129  
                               
  Other Renewables   1 4 7 12 21 31 43 52 61 71 81 88  
  Total   74 103 141 185 233 281 319 359 397 439 482 521  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.7 4.3 5.3 6.7  
  Oil   0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.2 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.3  
  Gas   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0 4.5  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 17.8 41.1 68.5 100.2 137.4 177.8 219.4 261.8 305.7 353.4 406.7  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
  Cropland   438 439 448 457 466 475 484 494 504 514 524 535  
  Grasslands   608 607 611 615 618 623 627 632 636 640 644 647  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 3 21 43 65 70 76 77 73 69  
  Forest   535 525 518 533 548 553 558 563 567 571 575 580  
  Others   583 593 587 557 512 471 430 406 382 362 348 333  
  Total   2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.42 3.02 3.62 4.07 4.12 4.26 4.30 4.57 5.07 5.69 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.15 -0.16 -0.09 -0.03 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
  Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.62 2.87 3.46 3.98 4.10 4.22 4.26 4.53 5.01 5.63  
  CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 146 171 201 219 234 241 251 260 265 272 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 30.1 32.9 33.3 32.0 26.4 24.3 22.1 21.5 21.3 20.6  
  HFC MtC eq. 0 5 21 40 66 95 130 164 199 233 267 302  
  PFC MtC eq. 3 5 14 22 30 38 46 51 54 54 53 51  
  SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 12 18 25 32 36 36 33 27 29 30  
  CO MtCO 235 270 314 375 428 472 518 549 579 598 617 651  
  NMVOC Mt 33 37 44 53 59 60 59 56 52 45 41 39  
  NOx MtN 7 9 12 15 18 20 19 20 20 22 24 26  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data                              
                               
ALM - B2 MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 1192 1511 1872 2263 2649 2992 3289 3554 3764 3931 4053 4139  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 3.7 5.5 8.8 14.6 22.8 32.6 42.6 51.4 59.3 66.8  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     4 5 6 8 12 17 24 32 41 50 57 65  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   14 10 11 11 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3  
  Solids   1 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 4 4 5  
  Liquids   17 23 30 37 46 53 61 71 76 83 95 93  
  Gas   4 5 8 10 14 19 28 34 42 48 48 52  
  Electricity   3 5 7 11 16 28 40 54 70 86 102 119  
  Others   0 1 3 4 8 12 17 21 25 30 32 35  
  Total   39 47 61 75 95 120 152 186 219 255 284 306  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   5 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 14 24 37 58  
  Oil   21 32 40 42 50 51 50 50 36 25 18 14  
  Gas   8 11 18 27 41 62 87 111 132 150 155 133  
  Nuclear   0 0 0 0 1 3 8 13 20 26 32 39  
  Biomass   14 13 14 17 20 28 36 46 64 86 111 132  
                               
  Other Renewables   2 3 6 8 13 23 32 40 47 53 58 62  
  Total   49 63 81 100 131 172 217 267 314 364 411 437  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1  
  Oil   0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.2  
  Gas   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.6 8.1  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 16.4 35.0 54.0 73.6 94.8 118.6 145.7 176.3 209.3 244.6 280.9  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B2 run
  Cropland   371 389 397 405 413 421 429 438 446 455 464 474  
  Grasslands   1680 1676 1689 1699 1709 1725 1741 1754 1766 1777 1787 1797  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 7 48 100 151 164 177 179 170 161  
  Forest   1745 1717 1699 1692 1701 1721 1740 1752 1765 1777 1790 1803  
  Others   1684 1698 1695 1676 1608 1513 1419 1372 1326 1292 1269 1246  
  Total   5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.26 1.48 1.88 2.24 2.60 3.04 3.27 3.55 3.79 3.84 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.63 0.42 0.12 0.01 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.12 -0.16 -0.20 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B2 run)
  Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.90 1.90 2.01 2.25 2.49 2.94 3.17 3.43 3.63 3.64  
  CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 94 102 112 129 149 162 175 187 193 200 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B2 run
  SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 14.4 15.2 16.7 17.8 19.4 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.0 17.2  
  HFC MtC eq. 0 2 12 20 32 54 84 120 157 190 211 223  
  PFC MtC eq. 4 4 7 10 14 20 27 33 37 39 39 37  
  SF6 MtC eq. 3 5 5 7 9 20 16 17 15 11 13 14  
  CO MtCO 396 404 416 427 445 492 542 616 728 860 992 1075  
  NMVOC Mt 48 55 65 72 78 81 83 86 82 80 77 75  
  NOx MtN 7 8 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 19 20 20  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B2 land-use data