IPCC SRES Emissions Scenarios - Version 1.1 (July, 2000)
World - B1HIGH MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 5262 6117 6888 7617 8182 8531 8704 8667 8463 8125 7658 7056  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 20.9 26.8 36.7 56.5 88.5 126.0 166.0 212.3 253.8 290.1 322.7 350.3  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     26 33 46 67 96 130 167 209 246 282 313 340  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   38 25 20 16 10 8 6 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   42 52 54 58 58 44 29 24 14 11 2 1  
  Liquids   111 123 152 180 212 238 259 262 242 208 179 161  
  Gas   41 47 58 66 71 75 74 67 62 58 53 45  
  Electricity   35 44 57 83 116 152 186 231 264 291 307 313  
  Others   8 10 17 32 52 76 104 139 173 201 218 213  
  Total   275 302 359 434 519 593 659 723 755 768 758 732  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   91 91 100 111 103 87 64 50 43 47 60 60  
  Oil   128 155 172 188 204 197 191 162 139 100 70 53  
  Gas   71 83 110 149 215 273 306 324 304 287 263 244  
  Nuclear   7 8 10 14 20 30 45 66 79 81 80 82  
  Biomass   46 44 47 60 79 101 123 159 203 245 280 316  
                               
  Other Renewables   8 13 21 39 63 112 183 272 348 406 431 404  
  Total   352 393 460 560 682 798 911 1033 1117 1167 1184 1157  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.5  
  Oil   0.0 1.4 3.0 4.7 6.6 8.6 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.5 16.5 17.2  
  Gas   0.0 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.1 6.3 9.0 12.1 15.3 18.4 21.2 23.9  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 75.3 158.6 246.9 338.3 432.9 528.1 620.1 704.9 780.4 847.6 907.9  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  Cropland   1459 1466 1464 1461 1458 1452 1447 1442 1437 1433 1431 1429  
  Grasslands   3389 3407 3432 3453 3474 3510 3547 3591 3635 3668 3688 3709  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 59 137 196 254 260 266 261 243 225  
  Forest   4296 4255 4231 4264 4335 4405 4475 4522 4570 4619 4669 4719  
  Others   3805 3820 3822 3711 3545 3386 3226 3133 3040 2968 2918 2868  
  Total   12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949 12949  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 7.90 8.99 9.97 10.27 10.11 9.57 8.60 7.63 6.99 6.33 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 0.79 -0.03 -0.65 -0.66 -0.67 -0.62 -0.57 -0.57 -0.61 -0.65 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
  Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 8.69 8.96 9.32 9.61 9.44 8.94 8.03 7.06 6.38 5.68  
  CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 351 385 423 449 468 452 441 411 359 302 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 62.0 53.8 48.1 40.4 33.3 26.9 24.1 20.6 17.8 15.5  
  CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 784 291 257 298 338 337 333 327 315 299  
  PFC MtC eq. 32 25 29 32 33 37 42 47 45 43 46 45  
  SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 36 37 47 58 68 71 62 46 43 43  
  CO MtCO 879 877 951 1065 1193 1323 1470 1549 1658 1731 1793 1871  
  NMVOC Mt 139 141 157 177 184 190 199 185 173 152 125 103  
  NOx MtN 31 32 37 42 47 47 45 40 35 29 26 23  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data                              
                               
OECD90 - B1HIGH MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 859 919 965 1007 1043 1069 1081 1084 1089 1098 1108 1110  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 16.4 20.6 25.5 31.1 37.2 43.5 49.8 56.2 63.0 70.5 78.6 86.9  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     14 18 22 27 32 38 43 49 55 62 69 77  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   13 10 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Liquids   66 69 75 75 73 70 71 68 66 62 58 55  
  Gas   22 28 31 30 31 30 25 20 14 12 10 7  
  Electricity   22 28 34 42 50 58 64 70 76 83 88 92  
  Others   1 1 1 5 7 9 11 15 17 19 19 18  
  Total   124 136 146 155 162 168 171 173 174 175 175 173  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   38 33 34 35 30 14 7 7 4 1 1 1  
  Oil   72 84 83 75 64 55 48 38 31 24 18 14  
  Gas   33 45 53 62 81 91 95 86 90 104 114 116  
  Nuclear   6 7 8 9 11 16 27 42 50 47 38 32  
  Biomass   6 8 8 13 17 20 23 31 40 50 62 68  
                               
  Other Renewables   4 5 8 13 17 27 34 37 37 39 41 43  
  Total   159 182 194 207 220 224 233 240 252 264 275 274  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0  
  Oil   0.0 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.0  
  Gas   0.0 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.7 4.6 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.7  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 30.1 62.4 94.3 124.9 152.7 177.3 199.4 219.6 239.1 258.4 277.3  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  Cropland   381 380 378 376 374 370 366 361 357 354 353 352  
  Grasslands   760 765 772 779 787 809 832 862 893 912 918 924  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 10 23 33 44 45 46 45 42 39  
  Forest   1050 1059 1074 1094 1117 1133 1149 1154 1159 1167 1179 1192  
  Others   838 826 805 770 728 684 639 607 574 551 537 522  
  Total   3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029 3029  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.32 3.27 3.14 2.73 2.46 2.16 2.00 1.99 2.01 1.96 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 -0.07 -0.13 -0.16 -0.14 -0.12 -0.08 -0.04 -0.04 -0.08 -0.12 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
  Total CO2 GtC 2.83 3.20 3.25 3.14 2.98 2.59 2.34 2.08 1.96 1.94 1.93 1.84  
  CH4 total MtCH4 73 74 71 69 66 62 59 56 53 53 53 53 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  SOx total MtS 22.7 17.0 9.1 2.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.9  
  HFC MtC eq. 19 58 108 103 109 112 116 117 117 119 120 120  
  PFC MtC eq. 18 13 12 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6  
  SF6 MtC eq. 24 23 16 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8  
  CO MtCO 179 161 166 170 163 162 157 164 171 177 180 166  
  NMVOC Mt 42 36 36 35 32 31 30 29 29 29 24 18  
  NOx MtN 13 12 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 3 2  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data                              
                               
REF - B1HIGH MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 413 419 427 433 435 433 423 409 392 374 357 339  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.0 4.9 7.9 9.9 11.9 13.8 15.6 17.4 19.0  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     3 2 3 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 17 19  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   9 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
  Liquids   15 10 11 14 17 17 15 14 14 12 11 10  
  Gas   14 10 11 11 11 10 8 5 4 4 3 2  
  Electricity   6 5 6 7 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 18  
  Others   7 6 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 8  
  Total   50 36 37 42 48 48 47 45 45 43 41 38  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   19 13 9 6 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 4  
  Oil   20 14 13 16 18 16 13 11 10 8 8 7  
  Gas   27 20 23 28 35 40 44 49 50 46 37 27  
  Nuclear   1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2  
  Biomass   2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 8 13 18  
                               
  Other Renewables   1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 11 12 13  
  Total   70 50 48 55 64 68 70 74 78 77 76 71  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7  
  Oil   0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5  
  Gas   0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 3.9 4.4  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 11.0 20.0 28.1 36.1 44.0 51.2 58.4 66.4 74.5 81.7 87.4  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  Cropland   268 266 266 266 265 265 264 264 263 263 263 262  
  Grasslands   341 362 364 366 368 370 372 374 376 378 380 382  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 9 20 29 37 38 39 38 35 33  
  Forest   966 951 934 933 934 954 973 983 993 1005 1018 1031  
  Others   701 696 711 702 688 659 630 617 604 592 580 568  
  Total   2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276 2276  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.84 0.87 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.01 0.93 0.79 0.62 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.00 0.00 0.04 -0.11 -0.12 -0.20 -0.28 -0.23 -0.17 -0.15 -0.14 -0.14 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
  Total CO2 GtC 1.30 0.91 0.88 0.76 0.84 0.75 0.69 0.76 0.84 0.78 0.65 0.48  
  CH4 total MtCH4 47 39 39 41 43 45 46 41 38 36 32 27 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  SOx total MtS 17.0 11.0 7.1 4.6 3.0 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.4 2.8  
  HFC MtC eq. 0 4 9 15 20 24 26 27 27 27 27 26  
  PFC MtC eq. 7 4 6 6 7 8 9 10 9 8 8 8  
  SF6 MtC eq. 8 6 4 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 4 4  
  CO MtCO 69 41 44 49 58 63 60 53 49 40 35 33  
  NMVOC Mt 16 13 15 18 21 23 25 27 30 30 23 15  
  NOx MtN 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 1  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data                              
                               
ASIA - B1HIGH MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 2798 3261 3620 3937 4147 4238 4220 4085 3867 3589 3258 2882  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 1.5 2.7 5.9 14.0 28.0 44.1 60.5 81.5 99.6 112.8 123.9 131.7  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     5 8 14 23 37 51 65 84 100 113 124 132  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   24 15 12 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   19 33 42 49 52 39 26 21 13 10 1 0  
  Liquids   13 22 37 55 74 94 111 113 106 85 68 58  
  Gas   2 3 7 11 13 16 18 17 17 16 17 16  
  Electricity   4 6 11 21 35 49 63 83 96 104 107 106  
  Others   1 2 6 11 21 31 44 59 75 86 95 91  
  Total   62 82 114 155 198 234 264 293 306 302 288 271  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   30 41 52 64 64 63 46 32 23 24 34 29  
  Oil   15 26 40 57 72 74 77 69 66 48 31 23  
  Gas   3 5 14 24 39 55 68 74 68 52 44 34  
  Nuclear   0 1 1 3 7 11 16 19 22 24 27 32  
  Biomass   24 22 25 31 41 53 64 75 82 95 98 99  
                               
  Other Renewables   1 3 5 12 25 44 75 124 159 183 183 169  
  Total   74 98 138 191 247 300 346 393 419 425 417 386  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 2.5 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8  
  Oil   0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.7 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.8  
  Gas   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.5  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 17.8 41.4 70.5 104.0 141.6 180.1 215.9 246.9 272.6 294.5 313.4  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  Cropland   438 435 435 435 434 434 434 434 433 433 433 433  
  Grasslands   608 606 609 612 614 617 619 622 625 628 631 634  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 12 28 40 52 54 55 54 50 46  
  Forest   535 525 518 535 551 557 563 578 593 604 610 616  
  Others   583 598 602 571 536 516 496 477 458 446 441 436  
  Total   2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164 2164  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 1.15 1.78 2.49 3.29 3.78 4.01 3.84 3.44 3.04 2.46 2.23 1.79 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.37 0.26 0.20 -0.17 -0.18 -0.10 -0.03 -0.10 -0.17 -0.18 -0.14 -0.10 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
  Total CO2 GtC 1.53 2.03 2.69 3.12 3.60 3.90 3.81 3.33 2.87 2.28 2.09 1.70  
  CH4 total MtCH4 113 125 144 166 188 203 212 203 197 180 152 118 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  SOx total MtS 17.7 25.3 30.2 31.5 29.6 23.3 16.1 11.5 9.4 6.3 4.0 3.0  
  HFC MtC eq. 0 4 11 20 34 56 93 90 85 79 72 64  
  PFC MtC eq. 3 5 7 9 11 14 17 20 18 18 18 18  
  SF6 MtC eq. 4 7 11 17 23 27 30 32 26 19 16 16  
  CO MtCO 235 270 338 432 543 645 764 792 800 775 773 751  
  NMVOC Mt 33 37 47 60 65 68 75 69 61 48 40 34  
  NOx MtN 7 9 12 16 18 20 19 17 14 12 10 9  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data                              
                               
ALM - B1HIGH MESSAGE     1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100  
                               
Population   Million 1192 1519 1875 2241 2557 2791 2980 3089 3115 3064 2934 2727  
                               
GNP/GDP (mex)   Trillion US$ 1.9 2.7 4.3 9.3 18.3 30.5 45.7 62.7 77.5 91.1 102.9 112.7  
GNP/GDP (ppp) Trillion (1990 prices)     4 5 7 13 21 33 48 63 77 91 103 113  
                               
Final Energy   EJ                          
  Non-commercial   14 10 9 8 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0  
  Solids   1 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1  
  Liquids   17 22 28 36 49 57 63 66 57 49 43 39  
  Gas   4 6 9 13 17 18 22 24 27 26 23 19  
  Electricity   3 5 7 13 21 33 46 63 76 87 94 96  
  Others   0 1 4 8 15 27 40 55 70 85 94 96  
  Total   39 48 61 82 111 143 178 211 231 248 254 251  
                               
Primary Energy   EJ                          
  Coal   5 4 5 5 5 6 7 10 13 17 21 26  
  Oil   21 30 35 41 49 52 52 44 31 20 13 8  
  Gas   8 12 20 34 60 87 100 114 96 86 68 67  
  Nuclear   0 0 0 1 2 2 3 5 7 10 13 16  
  Biomass   14 13 13 16 19 25 33 50 77 94 108 131  
                               
  Other Renewables   2 4 7 11 17 35 67 103 143 174 194 179  
  Total   49 63 80 108 152 206 262 326 368 400 417 426  
                               
Cumulative Resources Use   ZJ                          
  Coal   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0  
  Oil   0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.9  
  Gas   0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.3 4.6 5.6 6.5 7.3  
                               
Cumulative CO2 Emissions   GtC 0.0 16.4 34.9 54.0 73.2 94.6 119.4 146.3 172.0 194.1 213.0 229.9  
                               
Carbon Sequestraction   GtC                          
                               
Land Use   Million ha                         Land-use taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  Cropland   371 385 385 385 384 384 383 383 383 383 382 382  
  Grasslands   1680 1675 1686 1696 1705 1714 1723 1732 1741 1750 1760 1769  
  Energy Biomass   0 0 0 29 66 93 121 124 127 124 116 107  
  Forest   1745 1720 1704 1702 1732 1761 1790 1808 1825 1843 1862 1880  
  Others   1684 1700 1704 1669 1593 1527 1461 1432 1403 1379 1361 1342  
  Total   5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480 5480  
                               
Anthropogenic Emissions (standardized)                              
  Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 0.72 1.01 1.25 1.56 2.10 2.58 2.85 2.99 2.55 2.26 1.96 1.96 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes (MESSAGE data)
  Other CO2 GtC 0.73 0.82 0.62 0.38 -0.19 -0.22 -0.25 -0.22 -0.19 -0.20 -0.24 -0.29 CO2 emissions from land-use changes (AIM B1 emulation run)
  Total CO2 GtC 1.45 1.83 1.87 1.95 1.90 2.36 2.60 2.77 2.36 2.06 1.71 1.67  
  CH4 total MtCH4 77 85 97 109 125 138 151 153 153 143 122 104 Non-energy related CH4 emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  N2O total MtN2O-N 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Non-energy related N2O emissions were taken from AIM B1 emulation run
  SOx total MtS 10.5 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.0 11.8 11.6 10.4 8.5 7.2 5.9 4.8  
  HFC MtC eq. 0 2 16 28 42 64 98 102 102 101 96 89  
  PFC MtC eq. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 11 12 12  
  SF6 MtC eq. 2 5 5 8 12 17 22 24 21 14 14 14  
  CO MtCO 396 404 403 414 429 453 489 540 638 738 806 922  
  NMVOC Mt 48 55 59 64 67 67 68 60 53 45 39 36  
  NOx MtN 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11  
                               
Emissions correlated to land-use change and deforestation were calculated by using AIM B1 land-use data